Evaluation of alternative methods for forecasting the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia

Abstract

Assessing future demand for a wide range of services requires good quality population forecasts. Unfortunately, many past forecasts of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) population of Australia have proved highly inaccurate. This is due to poor data quality, missing data, and demographers’ incomplete understanding of Indigenous population change. In addition, because Indigenous population estimates are published only every 5 years and long after the reference date, forecasts are often used as preliminary population estimates. These form the denominators of various metrics used to monitor programmes aimed at improving health and social outcomes. The aim of this paper is to..